JPMorgan Raises US Recession Probability to 60%

Leading bank JPMorgan increased the chances of a U.S. recession to 60% on April 3, 2025, citing tariff impacts introduced by former President Trump that affect the global economy.

JPMorgan’s recession warning reflects heightened economic fragility from tariffs imposed by Trump, leading to market unrest. The bank’s analysis hints at possible interest in decentralized assets during times of financial uncertainty.

Financial markets reacted sharply to the announcement, mirroring past downturns like those in 2020. Indices such as the S&P 500 witnessed notable declines, underpinning the unease.

Increased tariffs led to an average tax rate increase of 22 percentage points in the U.S., affecting GDP. This has weakened business confidence and consumer spending while disrupting supply chains, yet cryptocurrencies remained stable with no immediate impact. Historically, economic uncertainties have often driven interest in cryptocurrencies as potential hedges against traditional market volatility. Past events, like the 2019-2020 trade wars, showed similar market fears leading to heightened volatility.

Experts from JPMorgan and Moody’s Analytics stress that ongoing tariffs could continue imposing substantial economic shocks. Analysts suggest prolonged fiscal policies may challenge the resilience of the U.S. and global economies against future disruptions. Data suggest that while cryptocurrencies have stayed firm, there is potential for increased adoption as uncertainties persist. Past trends show that digital assets like BTC and ETH can rise in popularity when confidence in traditional markets wanes. This reflects a possible shift to decentralized options during prolonged market discomfort. For further insights into fiscal policy impacts and compliance, Bloomberg Tax Pro offers extensive resources.